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I did not bother with posting the normal analysis of the monthly (un)employment report yesterday; it's really the same old story - some months it will be a bit better, some months a bit worse - the market will overreact either way as if one data point is changing the course in this economy. I continue to see no reason to change my view of a double dip recession and the only reason its not just one continuous dip is the enormous amount of money stolen ... err borrowed... from ourgrandchildren to pump up GDP figures later in the year. Just about a year ago the Bush rebates sent out some $100B in money we don't have to consumers (also taken from the grandchildren) along with another $60-$70B to businesses (that we don't have) and that pumped up GDP enough to make the quarter positive. Hence NO RECESSION! (at least at the time - remember we were going into an election; in retrospect by latter 2008 economists 'called' the recession as starting in Dec 2007 ) This year we're going to make the Bush stimulus look like peanuts by doing something over 4x as large - much of it will hit later this year and 1st half 2010. We'll stick our head in the sand and say "green shoots" because while the private economy is a mess, chopping down money trees let's us pretend things are just dandy. Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.
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