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China saw Hu as its own citizen, he said, while his name would not likely resonate with Australia's nationalistic media beyond a few weeks, unlike an Australian beautician convicted in Indonesia on drug charges in 2005 and who remains a cause celebre at home.

The most likely outcome will be that Australia and China agree to quarantine their differences over Hu's case to protect the wider trade relationship.

Australia and its top export market Japan have already agreed to set aside differences over Japan's Southern Ocean scientific whaling program to ensure the issue does impact on growing security and business ties.

But Rudd's image among voters as a China expert and safe pair of hands steering vital exports threatened by recession in most of its biggest markets may not escape unscathed.

The row could erode Rudd's high standing in opinion surveys, which have already begun to show a narrowing between his Labor government and conservative opponents, although Rudd himself remains well ahead as the leader preferred by voters.

"He's been caught between advice and probably his own assessment that a cautious approach would be most effective, and the demands of public opinion, fanned by a hectoring opposition," said Grattan.

(Editing by Michael Perry and Nick Macfie)