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This week has had economic reports on housing and personal income, but the main focus of the week will be employment. The ADP report, weekly jobless claims, and monthly employment report will be released over three consecutive days, and we should remain fixated on these numbers. Simply put, employed workers have the ability to service debt, invest in the markets, and consume, but the unemployed, on the other hand, do not. Some may argue about employment's ability to forecast future events (we are often told it is a lagging indicator), but in a recession that was driven by home foreclosures, the inability to access credit, and a shift toward savings, those who ignore these reports do so at their own risk. While the slowing rate of decline offers hope, we must watch these metrics closely. Each job lost puts us closer to a tipping point where the economy will enter a tailspin. I am not sure where the line exists, but to pretend it does not is foolish.
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