The Irrational Exuberance of the Green Shoots
By J. S. Kim
05 August 2009 @ 08:26 am EDT
Given the sheepherd's tendency to want to see this rally continue, this article will likely not be very popular. However, before anyone should express indignation at the title of this article and ask if I am aware of the recent surge in global markets, note that whenever a large disconnect has existed between the reality of economic fundamentals and stock market behavior, this large disconnect has always yielded disaster at some point in the future. This historical phenomenon, in fact, birthed the coining of a new term, "irrational exuberance", by the ultimate insider, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Of all people, it is no shock that Alan Greenspan perhaps understood this concept better than anybody else for it is the firm that he worked for, the US Federal Reserve, that largely continues to create such dissonance in markets today. In fact, today, dissonance in stock market behavior and economic reality may be at one of the highest peaks since the period that preceded the Great Depression. In the absence of free markets, rising stock markets and declining economic conditions are entirely feasible.