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Citigroup 2006: America - A Modern Day Plutonomy



By Trader Mark
07 September 2009 @ 10:15 pm ET

Surfing around this weekend I happened upon some review's of Michael Moore's "Capitalism: A Love Story". Reading some of the UK paper's view of the movie, I saw an interesting reference to an internal 2006 Citigroup memo regarding "America, which has turned into a modern day plutonomy". With the wonders of the internets (sic) I was able to unearth at least part of the report, which frankly pretty much reinforces things that are plainly obvious.

In a "plutonomy", according to Citigroup global strategist Ajay Kapur, economic growth is powered by and largely consumed by the wealthy few.

If this wealth concentration in a democracy is good, bad, or indifferent is the subject for an entirely different blog but that's neither here or there right now.

According to new Internal Revenue Service data announced last week, income inequality in the U.S. is at its worst since the 1920s (before the Great Depression). The top percentile of wealthy Americans earned 21.2% of all income in 2005, up from 19% in 2004, while the bottom 50% of wage earners earned 12.8% that year, down from 13.4% a year earlier.

More interesting are what the views are from within investment banking circles on why the economy acts differently than it used to as wealth is concentrated in a level seen in the States similar to only the 1920s. Below is at least part of the report; a quite fascinating read - I've also attached at the bottom of this post an entry in the Wall Street Journal Blog section from January 2007 - which does a quick summary of the report's findings/opinion. I vaguely remember reading about this at the time, but now in retrospect - after what has happened in the financial system - it is interesting from a totally different prism.

[sidenote: 1 bit of humor - Citigroup listed "financial crisis" as one of the threats to the plutonomy status quo. Oh, irony.]

Now that it has become clear that unlike the 1930s where this historic concentration of wealth was reversed for a good 4 decades post crisis, that this time around a financial crisis is actually serving to concentrate wealth even further, it might be helpful to readers to see how the entrenched money thinks on how to benefit from it. Basically the same way you'd invest in feudal Europe in the 1400s - avoid the peasants, stick with the lords. I don't see this changing anytime soon - as I said in 2007, in time you will not want to have anything to do with the bottom 80% of the country; it won't be a fun place to be. [Dec 8, 2007: Do the Bottom 80% of Americans Stand a Chance?] I think in the nearly 2 years since written, the fissures I spoke about have already begun to widen considerably.

Citigroup Mar 5 2006 Plutonomy Report Part 2

From the WSJ Blog:

It's well known that the rich have an outsized influence on the economy.

The nation's top 1% of households own more than half the nation's stocks, according to the Federal Reserve. They also control more than $16 trillion in wealth - more than the bottom 90%.

Yet a new body of research from Citigroup suggests that the rich have other, more-surprising impacts on the economy.

Ajay Kapur, global strategist at Citigroup, and his research team came up with the term "Plutonomy" in 2005 to describe a country that is defined by massive income and wealth inequality.

In a series of research notes over the past year, Kapur and his team explained that Plutonomies have three basic characteristics.

1. They are all created by "disruptive technology-driven productivity gains, creative financial innovation, capitalist friendly cooperative governments, immigrants...the rule of law and patenting inventions. Often these wealth waves involve great complexity exploited best by the rich and educated of the time."

2. There is no "average" consumer in Plutonomies. There is only the rich "and everyone else."The rich account for a disproportionate chunk of the economy, while the non-rich account for "surprisingly small bites of the national pie." Kapur estimates that in 2005, the richest 20% may have been responsible for 60% of total spending.

3. Plutonomies are likely to grow in the future, fed by capitalist-friendly governments, more technology-driven productivity and globalization.

Kapur says that once we understand the Plutonomy, we can solve some of the recent mysteries of the American economy. For instance, some economists have been puzzled (especially last year) about why wild swings in oil prices have had only muted effects on consumer spending.

Kapur's explanation: the Plutonomy. Since the rich don't care about higher oil prices, and they dominate spending, higher oil prices don't matter as much to total consumer spending.

The Plutonomy also could explain larger "imbalances" such as the national debt level. The rich are so comfortably rich, Kapur explains, that they have started spending higher shares of their incomes on luxuries. They borrow much larger amounts than the "average consumer," so they have an exaggerated impact on the nation's debt levels and savings rates. Yet because the rich still have plenty of wealth and healthy balance sheets, their borrowing shouldn't be a cause for concern.

Copyright The Fund My Mutual Fund. All rights reserved.

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Comments
1.
Oct 11, 2009 9:42pm

These bastards make me sicker than sick. They should be forced to move to dirt-poor countries and farm for subsistence while being exploited by the "plutonomy." When the revolution comes, brothers and sisters, these pigs will become accountable for their crimes.
2.
Oct 13, 2009 8:16pm

Those "bastards" cited by "Sam" are simply humans. Perhaps that is what he means - that the reality of human nature is making him sick. I agree with Trader Mark's editorial mostly, but must point out that the Memo is indeed a sales piece and that there are no references cited and the statistics are poorly expanded upon in the article. Also, take a look at Appendix 1. The article is intended to promote the companies listed in the report. Note in particular that many of the companies cited have chosen their newest campaign as that of catering to the upper middle class masses, while at the same time presenting the illusion that their good is a luxury brand meant for the super-rich. In effect, the companies being promoted by Citigroup have as their marketing aim the goal to cater to the upper-middle class, and not the super-rich. In contrast to "Sam's" rather coarse solution, to fix the problem of rampant haves and haves-not, we need to focus on an evolution/revolution of human nature first before we resort to any threats or a demonizing of other humans. Or worse yet, before we resort to violence. Things need to change. But not with hate.
3.
Oct 13, 2009 10:33pm

Unfortunately, revolutions are violent in nature. I have no doubt that this will end in bloodshed of the 'greedy few' When the first ceo who has no issue laying off 10000 people to pad his bonus an extra 100 million for the year get slaughtered in the streets and no one cares, that will be the first spark.
4.
Oct 15, 2009 8:02pm

DS Said: "we need to focus on an evolution/revolution of human nature first before we resort to any threats or a demonizing of other humans. Or worse yet, before we resort to violence. Things need to change. But not with hate." I'm not into hate...but realistically...is the answer really that we need to focus on changing human nature? Has human nature ever changed? Don't think so. Sounds like a wasted effort. I don' t know the solution, but human nature's not changing. It's been the same for a long time.
5.
Oct 16, 2009 4:12pm

Agreed YaBoi: human nature hasn't really changed much. That's most definitely a realistic response I can agree with. Facts are facts. My point is that nothing is going to change by doing what we have always done (as in: the definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results). The only way to be "realistically hopeful" (if hope can even be held to be realistic) is to focus on your own humanity first. That's hard enough. But it might be a start towards change ... change that might not realistically happen for a few thousand years. In the meantime, hate is a wasted effort.
6.
Oct 19, 2009 4:09am

Here is part 1, for anyone interested. http://www.scribd.com/doc/6674234/Citigroup-Oct-16-2005-Plutonomy-Report-Part-1
7.
Oct 22, 2009 1:40am

Why Can't I Buy the S&P 500 Minus Goldman Sachs? Index funds are popular components of many peoples' retirement accounts. But, I do not want to invest in Goldman Sachs. Vanguard obviously has enough computer power to let me buy their S&P fund but subtract out GS. Goldman Sachs might behave better if they thought people (and state pension funds) had some choice about who they are investing in. So-called "socially responsible" mutual funds let people invest in progressive companies, but the definition of what constitutes social responsibility is made solely by the fund managers. I have my own ideas about this, and I think that letting me buy an index fund but do some customization, by leaving out corporations like GS, would drive a lot of public dialog about which corporations are in fact socially responsible, and allow average investors to act on their decisions and the dialog. Hopefully this would encourage responsible behavior on the part of corporations in the S&P 500.
8.
Oct 22, 2009 4:43pm

Alan, You can buy the S&P 500 futures or SPY ETF and short Goldman Sachs stock in the amount that it is represented in that index, effectively removing it from the index from your investment standpoint. You will need to consider the stock dividend payouts in your ratio calculation for the shorted stock.
9.
Nov 2, 2009 4:44am

In reading these two "Plutonomy" reports, I find them badly written, with bad punctuation, containing repeated slang and colloquialisms, too many "I" and "we" references, a boorish misplaced overconfidence, misstated understanding of some of the statistical data presented from limited sources, too many references to just one book, and overall an oversimplified thesis that shows a breathtaking lack of knowledge of finance and economics. It is a wonder that Citigroup paid for badly written junk like this to be published to their clients and beyond.
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