MORNING WEATHER 9/29

Morning Min temps   over  eastern ND  DID  drop to 28  degrees  at Grand Forks  ND  and  30 degrees  over   Huron  in eastern ND  and  over  Pierre SD  and  south to  Valentine  NEB.   But that is about it. The rest of the region saw  temps  in L to M  30s.  This Link will show    Min temps

...look at the Bottom   Left  SMALL Map.

The  FROST  threat      northeast MN and  northern half of  WI  is     still a good bet  Wednesday Morning... but that is about it.  Weather Models    still show  a Major Low   developing Wednesday Night and  Thursday over  the  Upper Plains   and WCB   with good rains  and cool   temps... that moves into the   ECB and    Great Lakes   Friday  and  Saturday.   The  models offer   major changes in the 6-10 day   and are colder in the 11-15  day. 

In the SHORT TERM  the  Tuesday Morning  weather map shows   the   Big Low over the  northeastern Great Lakes and its   trailing  cold front  is now well off the East coast and  into  central FL.  Large High  pressure is located over the central Plains.   There are  light rains   over  central and eastern  TX.   Temps will  begin to  warm today over the  Plains   as winds become   West then  southwest ahead    of the next system.

The Big Low  Now over the NW Great Lakes will  move into   eastern Canada  which will cause the next   system  Wednesday night and Thursday  to slow down and   stall  bringing good rains into the  Upper Plains  by  Wednesday Night.    80s are possible over  the   eastern portions of the  central Plains and all of the Lower Plains  by Thursday afternoon.   

In the MEDIUM RANGE.... The overnight  weather models  have not change  with respect to how they handle this next system.  This stalled slow moving  Low will bring    good rains to the Upper Plains    and WCB  October 1 -2... but    miss   most of the central Plains. This Low will bring heavy rains with good coverage :  75% of 0.50 to 2.00" over    Central and eastern ND all of  SD    all of IA  s southern MN  and  southwest WI.

 In the  6-10 DAY... The weather models  keep this Low  moving slowly    east  OCT 3-4-5   bringing   light to Moderate rains  to  the  ECB and  the  New England.      Then the pattern   repeats itself  with a New  large     trough  and surface Low  crashing into the  West coast OCT 3 and 4 

 Because  of the slow moving Low   this week over the Midwest and the Low over  Quebec Canada   this  New system    also  becomes a  slow moving event over the  western US.  This Low will bring     good rains to the  Great   Basin and central Rockies OCT 4-5    but the models have this Low moving into  COL  10/4  then  IA   on 10/5-- further   East then Yesterday.    This would  bring   more rains into the  Midwest. 

The the Model turn colder    as they show a large cold High coming out of western Canada  into the  Plains 10/6 and   eventually into the   Midwest by  10/7.   This is  followed by another  large cold   High   coming out of western  Canada  into the Plains  and Midwest  10/9  and 10/10.

In the 11-15 DAY:  The   Tuesday   morning  0z  GFS   and    ECMWF  are  looking Much colder  with a  pretty good Ridge along the  West coast and   a fairly  deep trough  over the   the eastern US and eastern Canada.     If these Model  are right   this sort of pattern   WOULD  bring a   widespread  frost   to the  rest of the central and Upper Plains  and  Much of the Midwest with   several chances   occurring in this time frame.