Midday weahter 10/8

CURRENTLY... 

A quick look at the national radar which can be seen here

The national early-morning radar shows the front moving through the central Plains and the lower WCB... with heavy rains in storm is moving through central and southern ILL Central MO into eastern KS and far north central OK. There is a band of moderate showers over north-central IA into far southeastern MN.

LAST  24 HRS... 

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MAX TEMPERATURES   WEDNESDAY

RAINFALL 7AM CDT  WEDNESDAY-  7AM CDT   THURSDAY

Light to Moderate   rains   over  NEB  IA...under 0.25"    and coverage of  60%.  Moderate to heavy rains   over  western  OK   south central

 KS...  into KC Metro area ...  over southern MO  into  southern ILL.   KC 0.39"   Winfield KS 1.09"   Ponca   OK  1.09"   Enid 1.15"   Columbia  MO 2.12"   St Louis 0.50"   Whiteman  AFB 1.72"   Jefferson City  0.60"    Quincy 0.38"   Mt  Vernon  ILL 0.18"   Carbondale 0.18"

The  SHORT TERM 10/8 - 10/10...

Temperatures dropped to 25° in Glasgow Montana this morning as well as Northeast Wyoming... and low to mid 30s across much of western SD and all of western and central ND .  The cold front is moving through the western Great Lakes and then cuts across eastern IA into northwestern KS. Behind the front winds are gusting up to 20 and 30 mph across the western portions of the upper Plains.

The rain on the national map and the radar is a bit more expensive than what the short range weather models were depicting last night. That being said it looks like the rain on this front is only going to increase as it drives slowly to the south and east through the Midwest into the Upper Delta and TN valley over the next two days. The model still show a large area of heavy rain-- 1 to 3 " -- running from eastern OK eastern TX d eastern KS through all the Delta ...into all of Missouri ...80% of ILL ...all of IND and OH and into western PA. Embedded in that area is a region of 4 inches of rain over Northwest ARK into the southeast 1/3 of MO.

 In the  MEDIUM RANGE 10/11 - 10/13...  The front will continue to move into the eastern and southern US but the rainfall coverage will be significantly less because the area of Low pressure on the front will have tracked up into the eastern Ontario. Still this front looks to bring widespread significant rain of 0.25 to 1.5" over much of the Deep South with over 2 inches possible in southern MS and eastern LA.

In the  6-10 DAY  10/14 - 10/18...    The European weather model is developing the Pacific jet a little faster than I did yesterday with significant rain is moving into the west coast of California Oregon and Washington state laid on the 13th and 14th. This means a return to mild temperatures once the large cold palms off the East Coast on the 13th and 14th.   However the  GFS   does   not   agree with this idea  and tries to  rebuild a new ridge on the West coast  which IF correct... keep the  central and eastern   CONUS  seasonally cool.  

The problem is that the   Most of the data  does NOT support  the  colder  GFS solution   and leans   heavily towards the  European model.

In the 11-15  DAY 10/19 - 10/23:

A wave of Low pressure develops over the northern Rockies moves to the upper Plains into the Great Lakes on the 15th and 16th bringing light to moderate rain which is followed by more significant system on the 16th and 17th the moves of the central Plains into the heart of the Midwest... and possibly a follow-up system for that over the Delta and the ECB on the 18th and 19th.

DT

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