Special FX Report - Massive fiscal & monetary stimulus, no inflation

By Michael J. Malpede
19 October 2009 @ 01:51 pm EDT

The Fed has expanded the monetary base 114% over the past 12 months. Interest rates have been cut dramatically in all major countries. Interest rates are below 1% in the US, Japan and UK. The ECB has kept refinancing rate at 1% and allowed overnight in rates to fall below 1% at its 12 month bank auctions. Central banks have adopted unconventional monetary measures to boost liquidity. The ECB injected a record $620 bln in one-year funds. China has aggressively pumped funds into the economy. The Fed loaned $1 trln to US banks. Governments have approved large fiscal spending measures to boost growth. The US approved a 787 bln stimulus package in February with two thirds of the stimulus still left to be disbursed in 2010. The Japanese government announced a new stimulus plan in April, worth 2% of GDP. The EU has agreed to fiscal stimulus package of $266 bln worth 1.5% of GDP. China's stimulus plan totals $4 trln. Despite massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and signs of economic recovery, inflation remains in check.

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