Oil Report 21/10/2009

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21 October 2009 @ 01:44 pm ET

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Oil Prices Rebound Strongly As Gasoline Inventory Drew More Than Expected

The US Energy Department reported +1.31 mmb increase in crude inventory in the week ended October 16. Moreover, Cushing stock also built +0.46 mmb to 26 mmb. Despite this, it's better than market expectation of an +1.5 mmb build.

Concerning oil products, both gasoline and distillate stockpiles drew for the second week. Gasoline stocks declined -2.21 mmb to 206.9 mmb while distillated dropped -0.78 mmb to 169.9 mmb.

Crude oil rallies after the report. The benchmark contract touches 80.05 again and remains strong at around 79.8. Others in the energy complex also surge with heating oil advances to 2.07, the highest level since November 2008. RBOB gasoline also surges to 2.015, the highest level in 2 months.

US Oil Inventory

Weekly change in inventory as of 16/10/09	Actual	Change	Market Expectation	Previous
Crude oil	339.1 mmb	+1.31 mmb	+1.50 mmb	+0.33 mmb
Gasoline	206.9 mmb	-2.21 mmb	-1.50 mmb	-5.23 mmb
Distillate	169.9 mmb	-0.78 mmb	-1.50 mmb	-1.08 mmb

Comparison between API and EIA reports:

		API (Oct 16)		EIA (Oct 16)
	Actual	Inventory	Previous	Forecast (using API's inventory level)	Inventory
Crude oil	+3.85 mmb	343.0 mmb	-0.17 mmb	+5.24 mmb	343 mmb
Gasoline	-0.56 mmb	209.8 mmb	-2.66 mmb	+0.84 mmb	210 mmb
Distillate	-1.00 mmb	167.0 mmb	+0.22 mmb	-3.67 mmb	167 mmb

API collects stockpile information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department (EIA)for its weekly survey. Oil inventories from the API and EIA moved in the same direction for over 70% of the time, using data in the past 4 years.

Source: Bloomberg, API, EIA