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Via Calculated Risk blog, some examples of how dependent the market is on first time home buyers and investors. Now that we have a new (and improved) tax credit of $6500 rolling through Congress to the "move up" buyers we'll see if government can incentivize that class to start daytrading homes as well. The only issue is so many of them are underwater on their homes, [Oct 9, 2008: WSJ - Nearly 1 in 6 Homes Underwater] [Mar 9, 2009: One in Five Houses Underwater] so it is sort of difficult to move out to buy a new house (even with government handing free money out) when you still have your old one to deal with. Unless, a new national fraud is institutionalized - that is (1) buy the new house with the taxpayer's money, and (2) then walk away from the old one. You take a hit on your credit report but oh well - you have a new house, much cheaper, and the taxpayer can deal with the mess. In about 5 years you are good to go as the default moves to the bottom of your credit report, and within 7 years.... all gone. Let's see if we start hearing of rampant examples of this "strategy" by next spring.
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