Automakers gird for "new normal"

For perspective, consider that AutoNation Chief Executive Mike Jackson now counts as an optimist in an auto industry still reeling from a collapse few saw coming.

His bullish forecast?

The U.S. auto industry's "depression" will continue in 2010 but with sales showing a modest gain to more than 11 million vehicles -- still below levels of 26 years ago.

"We're looking at five to six years of growth," Jackson told Reuters. "We can probably get back to a good old recession in 2011."

Jackson sees opportunity amid the turmoil for AutoNation, the top U.S. auto retailer by sales.

In his view, the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler and restructuring across the industry have set the stage for a grudging but certain recovery without the destabilizing boom and bust cycle of the recent past.

Fast growth in China and government stimulus measures in Europe and the United States have started to pull the industry out of its deep slump. That has left analysts, investors and industry executives to handicap the strength of a still- uncertain recovery.

Among the key issues: How long will the road back to "normal" be in developed markets? How will the competitive landscape shake out? And what will be the role for the raft of ambitious start-ups raising funding -- and expectations -- for an electric car revolution?

Those are some of the questions that Reuters reporters will put to top auto industry executives and analysts and labor leaders at the Reuters Autos Summit beginning on Monday.

AT A CROSSROADS

The event comes at crucial time for government policy and for General Motors Co and Chrysler as the Detroit automakers set out to demonstrate that their fast-track restructuring in bankruptcies have set them up for success.

GM's board is set to meet next week in Detroit to make a final call on the fate of its European unit Opel.

The question before the automaker's 13-member board is whether to proceed with a deal to sell Opel to a group led by Canada's Magna International or whether to try to raise financing to keep the unit.

GM emerged from a bankruptcy in July with $50 billion in U.S. taxpayer funding and a new board vetted by the U.S. Treasury that has pushed management to reverse the long-running slide in sales in its home market.

Meanwhile, Fiat SpA Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne is scheduled to deliver the five-year plan for Chrysler's turnaround at the automaker's Detroit area headquarters on Wednesday.

The Italian carmaker has been developing a plan to restart Chrysler's stalled product development since taking management control of the U.S. automaker in June.

Analysts say the hurdle remains high for Fiat, which is taking over a company that many say was starved for investment under its previous two owners, private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management and Daimler AG.

"They need to get back on their feet and into the business of selling cars," said David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar. "They just don't have any exciting cars at the moment."

In a reminder of the continued pressure on the industry, U.S. auto sales for October due Tuesday are expected to show a slight rebound from September but at sales levels still just over 10 million units.