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Gary Gordon

President of Pacific Park Financial, Inc.

ETF Opportunities When Investors Abandon the Greenback



By Gary Gordon
02 November 2009 @ 09:03 pm ET

What if the U.S. dollar has hit a floor? What if it doesn't continue to weaken?

Consider action in the PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP). This fund recently rose 2% over 5 consecutive trading days on record breaking volume.

Here's what happened from 10/22-10/28:

PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish Trading Volume (UUP)
         
   

28-Oct

 

6,781,100

   

27-Oct

 

5,984,700

   

26-Oct

 

6,861,400

   

23-Oct

 

3,610,500

   

22-Oct

 

2,454,600

A 2% rise in a currency may not sound like much. However, when it comes on exceptionally high volume (a la strong conviction)... when it happens on a daily basis... it's possible that we can see snowball selling of riskier assets.

What are those risky assets? Review my feature, "When the U.S. Dollar Jumps... Some ETFs Get Hit The Hardest."

In brief, I highlighted why Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) was particularly prone to a sell-off. I also discussed how the SPDR Select Materials (XLB) sector and the KBW Bank Fund (KBE) had been cruising for a bruising.

While there is no telling how long near-term intrigue in the U.S. dollar will last, those who fervently believe in the intermediate-trend of U.S. dollar devaluation may have easy pickings in the near future. In my article, "The International ETFs That Bulls Will Buy When The Pullback Ends," I explain why Australia (EWA), Brazil (EWZ) and Gold Miners (GDX) could be in the driver's seat.

Of course, the dollar isn't just playing games. For the first time since April, the PowerShares Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) is actually threatening to climb above a 50-day, short-term trendline.

 UUP Since April 2009 50 Day MA

And as if that weren't the only "threat," the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is perilously close to climbing above a long-term trendline... the 200-day moving average. And that hasn't happened since March.

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