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US October unemployment and nonfarm payrolls (nfp) will be released on Friday, November 6th at 8:30 ET. Stability in recent US jobless claims data, a sharp rise in Q3 GDP, improvement in the employment index of the October manufacturing ISM and a continued decline in the ADP unemployment index points to a slowdown in nfp job losses during October. The October ISM employment index rose to its highest level since April 2006 at 53.1 from 46.2 in September. The ISM report suggests that hiring is starting to pick up. The ADP report also shows that job looses slowed. ADP said that employers cut 203k jobs in October compared to 227k in the prior month. In addition, the October Challenger survey said job cuts were 51% slower than a year ago at 55, 679 compared to 112, 884 in October 2008. The ISM report may overstate the improvement of the labor market because most of the hiring was either based on calling back of laid of workers or adding temporary workers. Officials from the ADP said that they expect unemployment to keep rising even as the economy begins to expand. The ADP report suggests US nfp will likely come in near -190k. A Marketwatch survey says that economists expect an nfp drop of 150k.
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