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The ability of stocks to edge higher again today suggests that the concerns over a pullback in risk appetite which was evident at the end of last week may have been overdone. Over the past month several US data releases have surprised on the upside. The surge in the employment component of the ISM manufacturing stands out but factory orders, retail sales, industrial production and Q3 GDP all suggest that the world's biggest economy is grinding its way out of recession. This afternoon's payroll's number has the capacity to set the tone for the next few weeks but the market appears to be cautiously optimistic that there will be a notable decline in the rate of job losses. The market is expecting 175K jobs to be lost; this would be the smallest number since August 2008. Any good news could be soured if the unemployment rate prints a 10% number, but the consensus expectations suggest that this will be avoided at least for the time being. EUR/USD has crawled back above the 1.4900 area this morning in tune with the modestly better tone in stocks. The EUR has also pulled back all of its overnight losses vs the JPY and the pound. Volumes today have been thin ahead of this afternoon's key data release.
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