USD/CAD pulled back sharply after edging higher to 1.0851 but such pull back was contained at 1.0593 and USD/CAD rebounded strongly towards the end of the week. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for a test on 1.0851 first. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 1.0205 has resumed and should target 1.1123 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0653 minor support will argue that correction from 1.0851 is still in progress and will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0593 and below. Nevertheless, in such case, the correction is still expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.0205 to 1.0851 at 1.0452 and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.