Month-End Fears

A few reports Monday to cover.  The first was the weekly export inspection report telling us how much of each grain was inspected for near-term export.  Wheat inspections were 15  million bushels ("m.b.") down from 17.7 the week prior, 18.3 a year ago and equal our weak four-week average.  It's a neutral number to demand as record-ending stocks would require 35 m.b. weekly to be sold to attract the futures market.  Corn inspections were 21 m.b. down from 27.7 the week prior and four-week average of 24.5.  Still slower than needed to be a futures driver.  The trade wants 35 m.b. or more weekly to be demand bullish for prices.  Beans, as usual, saw another stellar demand number.  Inspections were 59.8 m.b.  versus 64 last week, but the third highest weekly total ever.  Key world buyer, China, was in for 37.9 m.b. of the total as they continue to meet their protein needs and overlook U.S. beans as insurance against potential crop problems in South America after the first of the year.  Don't just take note of China's business as each week shows the rest of the world is in buying too with 22 m.b. sold to countries other than China.  The crop progress report after the close, showed 64% of the winter wheat crop is in good to excellent condition, up one percent from the week prior and off to a great start before we go dormant in December.  The only issue in the report that is friendly to prices is that eastern -belt states have many acres unplanted and may never get planted as corn and beans are yet to come to harvest and allow the soft red winter wheat to go in.  10% of the nation's crop is unplanted.  Soybeans came in 89% harvested.  Traders thought it would come in over 90%.  This could foster talk of abandonment.  But, there is time yet to further harvest beans.  The last 10% of every crop always come in slow.  Corn harvest  was put at 54% complete versus the 10-year average of 89%.  Illinois and Indiana east see the slowest effort of all the big producers but our upper plains like North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin are setting up to see more acres than wanted go not harvested.  We're set for a big abandonment number on the final crop report in January.