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While trying to avoid US government reports as much as possible due to their lack of accuracy and "sunny side up" disposition, there are some much better places to look for a reality check. On the consumer side of the equation I like to review the results of Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), and on the industral side we can use natural gas. Unlike almost every other commodity on Earth which has been soaring, natural gas has remains in the tank. Since most commodities are relatively easy to move across the globe (or to be put in storage, especially cheap to do with nearly free money handed out by central banks), their prices have been increasing... along with the now infamous weak dollar play. However, the difficulty in moving natural gas long distances means its a great domestic marker; hence its performance is even more damning considering the weak dollar. To put it in perspective, natural gas was peaking near $14 in first half 2008, and now sits back in the $4s. Much like electricy usage gives us a far better idea of what is happening inside the country of China, natural gas gives us a reality check from the green shoot crowd domestically.
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