Technician - Euro crosses

EUR/CZK

Koruna rebounded from 25.50 level after short consolidation.

Koruna should stop its weakening on 26.00 level. Most likely technical scenario is short consolidation in the 25.80 –

26.00. Later is likely pressure on 26.00 level, quite likely successful (MACD signal).

EUR/PLN

Zloty broke through 4.15 level, but then returned to it.

Exchange rate may repeat August- September consolidation close to 4.15 level. Second possibility is trend toward

4.00 psychological target.

EUR/HUF

Forint rebounded from 266 level.

Most likely technical scenario is consolidation in 266 – 273 range.

EUR/RON

Dollar is in consolidation in 1.48 – 1.50 range.

Further consolidation around 4.28 level is likely. Leu will eventually return to 4.23 level in mid-term horizon. Such view

is supported mainly by MACD and RSI20 development.

EUR/USD

Dollar is in consolidation in 1.48 – 1.50 range.

Continuing consolidation is most likely technical scenario. Testing of 1.50 level is more likely than 1.48 level, because of upward

mid-term momentum (MACD, ROC60).

EUR/JPY

EURJPY is declining towards 129 level.

Most likely technical scenario is strengthening of yen to the vicinity of 129.

EUR/CHF

EURCHF is in consolidation around 1.515, momentarily close to 1.5095 auxiliary level.

Most likely technical scenario is continuing consolidation close to 1.515. Much less likely is creation of declining trend

towards 1.47 level.

Copper

Copper is in rising trend, testing 315 level.

Testing of 315 level should be unsuccessful and copper should consolidate in 300 – 315 range, because upward

momentum seems to be too weak for further immediate strengthening.

Analyst: Luboš Mokráš

lmokras@csas.cz

EUR/CZK

- Main trend: consolidation

- Short-term trend: growth

R4: 27.00 psychological

R3: 26.80 top

R2: 26.40 consolidation

R1: 26.00 psychological, top, bottom

S1: 25.80 consolidations

S2: 25.50 consolidation

S3: 25.20 consolidation

S4: 25:00 psychological, bottom

S5: 24.80 consolidation

_ Koruna rebounded from 25.50 level after short

consolidation.

_ MACD turned up and send sell signal for koruna.

_ Both ROCs are close to zero level. ROC60 is turning up.

_ RSI jumped above neutral level.

_ Koruna should stop its weakening on 26.00 level. Most

likely technical scenario is short consolidation in the

25.80 – 26.00. Later is likely pressure on 26.00 level,

quite likely successful (MACD signal).

EUR/PLN

_ Main trend: consolidation

_ Short-term trend: consolidation

R6: 4.85 Fibonacci projection level

R5: 4.65 local top

R4:4.50 Fibonacci level, psychological

R3: 4.39Fibonacci level, top of consolidation

R2: 4.28 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation

R1: 4.15 top

S1: 3.93 tops

_ Zloty broke through 4.15 level, but then returned to it.

_ MACD declined below zero level.

_ Both ROC’s are close to zero level in sideways trend.

_ RSI is in sideways trend close to neutral level (50

points).

_ Exchange rate may repeat August- September

consolidation close to 4.15 level. Second possibility is trend

toward 4.00 psychological target.

EUR/HUF

_ Main trend: consolidation

_ Short-term trend: growth

R5: 316 top

R4: 304 top

R3: 295 bottoms

R2: 285 top

R1: 273 top

S1: 266 tops

S2: 258 tops, bottom level of consolidation

S3: 255 tops, top level of consolidation

_ Forint rebounded from 266 level.

_ MACD declined below zero level.

_ Both ROCs are close to zero level.

_ RSI is close to neutral level.

_ Most likely technical scenario is consolidation in 266

– 273 range.

EUR/RON

_ Main trend: consolidation

_ Short-term trend: consolidation

R1: 4.35 top

S1: 4.28 consolidation, top

S2: 4.23 Fibonacci projection, bottom of consolidation

S3: 4.07 Fibonacci projection

S4: 3.97 Fibonacci projection level, top

S5: 3.80 top

S6: 3.65 top, top level of consolidation

S7: 3.60 consolidation, bottom level of consolidation,

psychological

_ Leu is consolidating around 4.28 level.

_ MACD is in slow declining trend just above zero level.

_ ROC60 is in sideways trend above zero level. ROC20

is testing zero level.

_ RSI returned to neutral level.

_ Further consolidation around 4.28 level is likely. Leu

will eventually return to 4.23 level in mid-term horizon. Such

view is supported mainly by MACD and RSI20 development.

EUR/USD

_ Main trend: rising

_ Short-term trend: rising

R2: 1.53 bottom of consolidation

R1: 1.50 psychological

S1: 1.48 top

S2: 1.43 tops

S3: 1.40 psychological, consolidations

S4: 1.37 tops

S5: 1.30 psychological, bottom

_ Dollar is in consolidation in 1.48 – 1.50 range.

_ MACD is in sideways trend above zero level.

_ ROC60 is in mid-term sideways trend above zero

level. ROC2 is testing zero level.

_ RSI is in sideways trend around neutral level.

_ Continuing consolidation is most likely technical

scenario. Testing of 1.50 level is more likely than 1.48 level,

because of upward mid-term momentum (MACD, ROC60).

EUR/JPY

_ Main trend: consolidation

_ Short-term trend: consolidation

R6: 150 psychological

R5: 148 bottom

R4: 146.0 Fibonacci projection level

R3: 143.5 Fibonacci projection level

R2: 138.0 tops

R1: 135.4 Fibonacci projection level

S1: 129.0 tops of consolidations

S2: 126.0 bottom level of consolidation, tops

S3: 122.0 Fibonacci projection level

S4: 117.0 bottoms

_ EURJPY is declining towards 129 level.

_ MACD is in slow declining trend. It just broke through

zero level.

_ Both ROCs are in volatile sideways trend around zero

level.

_ RSI is in sideways trend around zero level.

_ Most likely technical scenario is strengthening of yen

to the vicinity of 129.

EUR/CHF

_ Main trend: sideways

_ Short-term trend: rising

R5: 1.620 bottom, top level of consolidation

R4: 1.595 bottom level of consolidation

R3: 1.570 consolidation

R2: 1.550 bottom

R1: 1.515 bottom of consolidation

S1: 1.4871 Fibonacci level

S2: 1.470 bottoms

S3: 1.435 bottom

_ EURCHF is in consolidation around 1.515, momentarily

close to 1.5095 auxiliary level.

_ MACD is in sideways trend slightly below zero level.

_ Both ROC’s are in sideways trend very close to zero

level.

_ RSI is in sideways trend around neutral level.

_ Most likely technical scenario is continuing consolidation

close to 1.515. Much less likely is creation of declining trend

towards 1.47 level.

Copper

_ Main trend: growth

_ Short-term trend: growth

R1: 315 Fibonacci level

S1: 300 Fibonacci level, psychological, tops, bottom of

consolidation

S2: 280 Fibonacci level, bottom of consolidation

S3: 246 top

S4: 221 tops, bottoms

S5: 186 bottom

_ Copper is in rising trend, testing 315 level.

_ MACD is in volatile sideways trend above zero level.

_ Both ROC’s are in sideways trend slightly above zero

level.

_ RSI is just below overbought level.

_ Testing of 315 level should be unsuccessful and

copper should consolidate in 300 – 315 range, because

upward momentum seems to be too weak for further

immediate strengthening.