World oil demand growth to outpace supply in 2010: poll

According to a Reuters poll of ten top oil-tracking analysts and organizations, oil demand is predicted to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year to 85.9 million bpd.

At the same time, the rise in production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) from OPEC members is seen growing by just 800,000 bpd in total.

Click here for Reuters table of results

Click here for a graphic illustrating the changes: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/119/OIL_EZPOLL1109.gif

Click here for a spreadsheet on supply and demand

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/OIL-POLL-NOV09.pdf "The key question for prices is supply," Barclays C

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/ce-insight/OIL-POLL-NOV09.pdf "The key question for prices is supply," Barclays C apital analyst Costanzo Jacazio said.

"2010 is really a bridging year -- if the economies continue to perform as well as they have been doing during the early stages of the recovery, then I think by 2011 we'll be seeing the demand numbers at or above where they were in 2008."

Non-OPEC output is seen averaging 51 million bpd in 2010, up from 50.8 million bpd, while OPEC output of NGLs -- which are not subject to the producer group's production quotas -- are expected to rise to 5.6 million bpd, up by more than 20 percent since 2008.

If OPEC members can maintain current adherence levels to present output quotas, with group output including Iraq assessed around 28.9 million bpd, crude oil inventories could fall by almost 150 million barrels next year.

Demand for OPEC's crude is seen at 29.3 million bpd.

At the end of September, the International Energy Agency assessed oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) at 60 days of forward cover, 120 million barrels above the five-year average.

DIVERGENCE

Doubts surrounding the eventual strength of the economic recovery and how oil demand will respond following the impact of record prices, a global recession and increased environmental initiatives has seen many analysts' views diverge.

Investment banks Goldman Sachs and BofA-Merrill Lynch have the most bullish outlook for demand, projecting 86.4 million bpd and 86.7 million bpd respectively.

Barclays Capital sees demand at 1 million barrels below Goldman's estimate because of increased conservation efforts, but conversely sees non-OPEC supplies 1.1 million barrels lower than its U.S. rival due to falling investment during the crisis.

Deutsche Bank sees demand as relatively weak in 2010, at just 86 million bpd, despite forecasting the world economy will grow at 3.7 percent in 2010 - well above the International Monetary Fund's forecast of 3.1 percent global growth.

"The question is where's the demand growth? Year-on-year figures in the U.S. show demand still struggling," said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's head of energy research.

"It appears the economic recovery is not coming in energy-intensive or oil-intensive sectors. We may still be seeing people being careful about consumption -- if they have two cars they'll be driving the smaller one."