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USD - This morning America's currency continues to ride the wave of bullish sentiment that began early last week, rising to multi-week highs vis-à-vis its major world counterparts, namely the EUR ($1.4599) and GBP ($1.6190). In apparent contradiction to the definitive risk trend of the past nine months or so, the dollar was buoyed on the back of a string of positive economic data, not succumbing to the pressures of investor risk appetite: MBA Mortgage Applications (8.5% on 12/4 vs. 2.1% prior); Trade Balance (-$32.9B in Oct. vs. -$36.8B exp.); Advance Retail Sales (1.3% in Nov. vs. 0.6% exp.); Michigan Consumer Confidence (73.4 in Dec. vs. 67.4 prior). The robust data, while ostensibly stoking the flames of a nascent economic recovery, could also be an indicator that the USD is making progress on a true bullish reversal, abandoning its status as a "safe haven" currency. With the DJIA rallying again this morning-hovering near its YTD high (10,492.05)-markets are exuberant at the prospect that the worst is truly behind. Markets will have plenty over which to ruminate this week with key inflation, housing, and manufacturing data on the docket. The culminating point for the week, however, will be the two-day FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow and concludes on 12/16. While no change in rates is expected during this final FOMC meeting of the year, all eyes will be focused on the accompanying policy bias statement for any clues as to the timing of future rate increases (current Fed Funds Futures are pricing-in a 50% chance of a 25-bps increase in June 2010), as well as any measured changes to the Fed's current policy on fiscal stimulus.
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