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The dollar index is down by 0.3% at the start of North American trading still typified by thin trading conditions. The underlying theme remains intact. Investors expect to build on the closing arguments from 2009 and see better things happening next year. There is building anxiety in the bond markets tipping off investors that the period of ultra-low monetary policy is likely to disappear from the agenda in 2010 and like it or not, a higher and steeper yield curve is but one of the ingredients of recovery. The dollar’s recent rally in line with that view has come to a sharp halt as investors realize that there will be no jump in short rates, just a gradual rise. Meanwhile the Japanese yen continues to play second fiddle to the dollar as investors figure it will be left in the dust as and when global interest rates finally budge.
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