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EUR/USD is holding comfortably above its February lows on the hope that a bailout for Greece will avert a crisis in the EMU. That said the EUR has not been able to extend the gains notched up earlier in the week. The market is correct to be cautious. Help for Greece at this point will indeed band-aid the situation. However, it cannot disguise the fact that fiscal frictions within the EMU run deep and that there are insufficient controls in place to ensure that various countries have adequate incentives to reform their budgets and to maintain budgetary prudence. This crisis raises the question as to whether a monetary union is sustainable in the long-run without stronger fiscal policy controls. However, insofar as this questions the sovereignty of member nations, this has been an issue which EU countries have been sidestepping for decades.
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