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The dollar succeeded in confounding many experts late last week with a sudden strong rally. Fred Starkey earlier described it as marking out a Head-and-Shoulders top, which it appears to have aborted, "Fractal Dave" was caught out by the big drop in gold on Friday caused by the dollar strength, when he had expected it to rise. Peter Schiff recently set out the fundamental case why the dollar should plunge - which has not been invalidated, but in this business timing is everything. Only the wavers, who have been steadfastly bearish, ended the week looking good at last. We are well aware of their arguments, and have not gone along with them thus far, because there was money to be made. In practical terms being right too soon is as bad as being wrong.
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