President Barack Obama has an excellent chance of winning the 2012 Election, thanks to some key indicators, and despite fluctuating approval ratings.
Here are five reasons (in no particular order) why Obama will be victorious in November 2012.
Since World War II, every candidate who ran unopposed to gain his party's nomination went on to win the election. Though Obama has disappointed a portion of his base because of some of his concessions to conservatives, it seems implausible that those voters will stay home or vote against him in the general election given the Republican field. Unlike the 2000 and 2004 election, there also won't be siphoning of liberal votes by a third party candidate.ReutersThe 2012 Republican presidential candidates line up after a debate. ReutersNot only is Obama running unopposed, he has also proven to have more charisma than the only three one-term presidents since World War II -- Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H. W. Bush. Americans tend to like winners, and incumbents present an aura of success better than those trying to unseat them. Obama has similar approval ratings to two-term former president Ronald Reagan, who won re-election in 1984 by a landslide.ReutersObama received 67 percent of the Latino vote in 2008, and five key swing states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico) have a strong chance of increasing their Latino voter registration. Roughly seven percent of the voting public was Latino in 2010, and more are expected to turn out in a presidential election. The Republican candidate may have to push for a lenient stance on immigration to win stronger Latino support, but that may come at the expense of non-Latino Republican voters who want stronger enforcement of the borders.ReutersWith Osama bin Laden dead, and a timetable set for U.S. troops to return from Afghanistan and Iraq, voters probably won't be able to say they feel less safe than they did four years ago. The economy is expected to rebound, so voters may cut Obama some slack if there are at least signs of improvement, especially considering the Dow Jones Industrial Average is far higher now than at just above 8,000 when he took office. Congress has far worse approval ratings than Obama, and many voters will likely take that into consideration in November 2012.Reuters
