Libya and Algeria: Could the Libyan Conflict Cause regional Instability?

Analysis

By Anissa Haddadi: Subscribe to Anissa's

September 1, 2011 9:37 AM EDT

Throughout the last six months, Algeria has been a constant feature of the conflict: imaginary or real ally of Gaddafi, the country has been accused throughout the months of sending troops, arming Gaddafi forces or sheltering the former dictator.

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The Algerian government has however continually denied the allegations and as tensions between the National Transitional Council (NTC) and Algerian authorities mount, the establishment of the new Libyan government could also bring about regional instability.

The latest affair opposing the NTC and the Algerian government was the official declaration by Algerian authorities that Gaddafi's wife Safiya, his daughter Aisha and his sons, Mohammed and Hannibal and their children had found shelter in the country on Monday morning on humanitarian ground.

At the time the NTC accused the Algerian government of an "act of aggression" and analysts and politicians started to question whether Algeria had violated the UN sanctions and ban travel on the leader, proving that the country's government is still internationally seen as controversial.

Conscious of the potential diplomatic consequences of its decision, Algeria sent a letter to the United Nations explaining why it allowed members of Gadhafi's family to enter the country yesterday despite an international travel ban imposed earlier this year.

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Tensions were still growing as Thursday the Algerian newspaper El-Watan quoted sources close to the Algerian presidency as saying that Gaddafi was near the border, accompanied by some members of his family.

According to the newspaper, the colonel tried to get access to the Algerian territory by contacting President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who according to the report refused to answer the call by Gaddafi, claiming he was "busy."

While the Libyan council publicly reacted harshly to Algeria's decision to shelter some members of Gaddafi, El-Watan on the other hand insists their entry on the territory came following an approval and guarantees from some members of the National Transitional Council of Libya.

Another point of discord between Algeria and many of his detractors is the extent of Islamic fundamentalist in the country. Despite publicly vowing to fight off terrorism, Algerian authorities have often been accused of harbouring terrorists groups, which looking at the country's history seems rather unlikely.

In the 1990's Algeria was rocked by a Civil War which opposed the Algerian government and various Islamist rebel groups. The armed conflict began in 1991 and is said to have cost between 150,000 and 200,000 lives, and the Algerian civil society is still bearing the scars and traumas of the Islamic-orientated insurgencies.

While it is clear that Islamist groups are still present and active throughout the country, they were recently accused of training members of the Nigeria Militant group Boko Haram, those militias first and foremost represent an opposition and stand in opposition to the government.

Seen in this light, it becomes more comprehensible that Algeria's fears regarding the Libyan conflict is that it could end up further fuelling Islamism militancy and insurgency in the region.

With arms flowing, many are being sold on the black market, analysts have warned insurgency groups will be the first to benefit from all the light weaponry available, while as long as Gaddafi is on the run, nothing excludes a possible alliance between the former leader and organisations such as al-Qaeda.

At least this is what Algerian authorities fear as Mourad Medelci, Algeria's foreign minister, said the government is convinced the North African branch of al-Qaeda has obtained weapons originating from the Libyan conflict on the black market.

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