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Gold's rally will extend beyond $2,000 an ounce in the next year, but won't match the torrid record-breaking climb of the last 12 months, according to gold investors and analysts attending the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) annual conference.
With no let up seen in the financial markets uncertainty that fanned the safe-haven investment spree, bullion is expected to rise to $2,019 an ounce by November 2012 when the next LBMA conference takes place in Asia, delegates polled by event organizers at the end of the meeting on Tuesday said.
That is about 12 percent above current levels.
While most were optimistic on the outlook for gold as the low interest rate environment and volatility on the stock and currency markets boosted the metal's appeal as a haven, it was expected to struggle to match the near 50 percent gains of the last year.
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"We've heard so much about the perfect storm that has driven gold to where it is now, that the odds of it increasing a similar amount have to be a lot less," Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.
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"There are good reasons why gold has been taken to where it has, but can we really assume that those factors are going to remain, for it to power on to $3,000, $4,000? We are assuming global GDP will grow and the fear factors will lessen, so there will be less reason to be owning gold."
Well over 500 analysts, traders, fund managers, refiners and miners, as well as official sector and wider industry delegates, attended the meeting, one of the most significant in the precious metals calendar.
Attendance of the meeting has swelled as gold has become an increasingly sought-after asset in recent years, with prices hitting a record $1,920.30 an ounce on September 6. They have since retreated, however, and are down 2.5 percent so far in this month after a period of intense volatility.
STRETCHED, BUT NOT TO BREAKING POINT
Analysts have suggested this volatility pointed to overstretched conditions, but delegates disputed that it marked the start of a deeper correction.
"The higher levels of volatility is a function of increased economic uncertainty... but it doesn't portend a reversal of the gold market," HSBC analyst Jim Steel, who has a 2012 gold forecast of $2,025 an ounce, said on the sidelines of the conference.
"The macroeconomic climate remains positive for gold. The fact that there's a high level of volatility in the market doesn't take away from its safe-haven status. You've got to look at it over time compared to paper assets. If it were treated as a currency, it would have outperformed every other currency in the last 12 months."
John Fallon, president of hedge fund Pia Capital Management, said gold is "in an orbit by itself" among commodities and remains his favorite investment in the sector, due to its high liquidity and the support offered by solid physical demand.
"Gold still has our undivided interest," he told Reuters at the conference. "We favor both the (gold) ETFs and the actual spot OTC market."
