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The LBMA gold price geniuses said gold would crack $2000 next year end of year. A year away - ok what a great question.
Now that is a great question. What is gold in a year?
Ok so what is my take? Before I give you some calls we made about gold, the USD and other currencies which proved right - in a moment well revisit that.
Um yes gold is more likely than not to crack $2000 in a year from today. To put it in a nutshell. In fact gold might crack $3000 too. So let's middle it and say my call is 55% gold hits $2500 in a year from today. The 45% balance will be gold hitting $1000 first in a huge stock crash, and then followed by a rally back to $1500 in a year.
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Ok that's at least a measurable call.
Now, since I don't have all the knowledge of the LBMA geniuses, I reserve the right to change my view any time. But that's a call.
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Now why did I make that call? Well, you know the phrase- it's 'a long story'. The Middle East? A wild card. For war or peace. If peace, then gold stays around $1500 to $2000 as it is now. If war gold might hit $3000 before it tanks when the markets tank and take gold back down to a new floor of $1500- whereas the old floor was $1000 to date but that seems long gone now with gold rising in all currencies which are racing to the bottom of competitive devaluations....I told you it's a long story.
Competitive currency devaluations
But the public bailouts have put a floor on gold too, so with the competitive bailouts and currency devaluations at the point of a gun from the world CDS markets which appear frankly to be the only free market left with the exception that the speculators are having a field day and that's terrible - not controlled by the Central banks (their chagrin...)... um
So you got that so far?
Ok...if gold were to hit $3000, the USD would be having some trouble, but nothing major yet. $5000 would catch my attention tho. The Euro would be in the toilet and frankly, I think the Euro is already below par with the USD now, regardless of the 1.35 numbers it's posting. With all the trouble the EU and Euro are in, it should be around .90 to the USD not 1.35 but the majic EU hopes spring eternal. Enough said or do I have to point out the massive geopolitical forces springing on the Euro now, or the Arab/Moslem unrest -IN the EU and not just in the Middle East? Germany is not going to just roll over and indebt their economy (basically barely healthy now at 3% growth while the rest of the world is in deflation and depression). China? India.. The Bricks - well those emerging economies are overblown as is the resource mania. Yes mania -IE just another bubble and maybe the last one. Oops do I hear the gold bugs calling for my head?
Gold is definitely in reality and Silver is speculative as it always was, or didn't you know that?
