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Here are six indicators that the world is in a recession, meaning we have already succumbed to the dreaded double-dip recession.
Three of the indicators come from specific industries, all U.S.-based. One of the indicators is statistically oriented. Another indicator is from outside the U.S., and the final one is from a respected economist.
Railroads
Weekly U.S. railway traffic, a key barometer of buying and selling, is now fractionally negative on a year-over-year basis, as it was ahead of the 2008 downturn.
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The business of making things is not recovering. The Dallas Federal Reserve's manufacturing index in September fell further into negative teritory to -14.4 from -11.4 in August and -2 in July. Keep in mind that in November 2007, a month before the Great Recession, the index was at -10.7.
Housing
Things are getting worse, not better. Washington says that in August there were 295,000 new home sales, a 2.3 percent decline and the fourth month in a row that this index has fallen. The August figure markss a six-month low and -- more importantly -- is now 25 percent lower than it was in June 2009, the lowest point of the Great Recession. Prices are off 8.5 percent from a year ago.
"Is there any doubt that this is a depression statistic?" asked David A. Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluff Sheff + Associates Inc., a top money manager.
But wait; there's more. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Survey found that 18 of the 20 cities and both of the survey's Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.7 percent and the 20-City is down 4.1 percent compared to July 2010.
In short, the U.S. housing market is still southbound.
Overal U.S. economic activity
The Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index for August was -0.43 percent, slightly below consensus. The "spot" index has been flat or negative now for five months in a row.
Stagnation may be an overly positive term. The Economic Cycle Research Institute in mid-September entitled its U.S. cyclical outlook "Economy on Recession Track."
