Herman Cain Press Conference: Did It Help or Hurt?

Down the Poll Hole

Even as late as last week, amid criticism of Cain's initial, fumbling responses to the Politico story, a recovery seemed possible. A Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted in the first four days of the scandal found that 70 percent of likely Republican voters said the allegations would not affect their vote.

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"There is obviously a lag effect between what the public is processing and what the poll numbers have been indicating," Jamie Chandler, a political science professor at Hunter College in New York City, told the International Business Times. But from subsequent polls, it seems the allegations are beginning to take a toll.

According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll released on Sunday, Cain's favorability rating among Republicans fell from 66 percent to 57 percent in one week. Ipsos noted that the poll was conducted online, meaning "typical margins of error do not apply," but the 9 percent drop was the first indication that the campaign might be in trouble, and traditional telephone polls have begun to corroborate that.

A Poll Position survey of 1,386 registered voters, which was conducted immediately after Cain's press conference on Tuesday, found that only 35 percent believed Cain when he said the allegations against him were "completely fabricated." A plurality, 43 percent, did not believe him, and 22 percent had no opinion, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

There was a dramatic difference of opinion between Republicans and Democrats, with Republicans believing Cain's denials by a large margin, 54 percent to 24 percent, and Democrats rejecting his denials by an even larger margin: 63 percent to 15 percent. That was a piece of good news for Cain, since he couldn't have expected to get much Democratic support anyway.

But Cain fared poorly among the all-important independent voters, of whom 34 percent believed the charges were fabricated and 45 percent did not.

In the general electorate, skepticism of his denials crossed all racial and ethnic lines. Pluralities of white, black, Hispanic and "other" voters all rejected the idea that the allegations were "fabricated," which deals a blow to Cain's efforts to characterize the backlash against him as a racially motivated smear campaign.

Opinions did differ along gender lines. Men were more likely to say the allegations were fabricated, 43 percent to 38 percent, while women were more likely to say the allegations were legitimate, 48 percent to 27 percent.

The Pursuit of Independents

The loss of independent voters poses the biggest threat to Cain's campaign. Most Republicans are inclined to support him and most Democrats are inclined to oppose him regardless of what he says or does, but independent support is important in the primaries and crucial in the general election.