If Gold (GLD) Tracks NASDAQ, Housing Peaks It's Headed to $3000... in 18 Months

By Trader Mark

May 26, 2010 6:00 PM EDT

This chart really has little analytical value other than extreme eye candy. It basically takes a 10 year bull market scenario for gold and overlays it over the housing and NASDAQ bull (bubble) markets - of course putting 3 random series together like this is extreme data mining but hey... it's fun!

What it does show is what any stock investor knows - any asset that is in bubble usually goes parabolic in its last stages. That is generally when short sellers get demolished even if conceptually they are correct... and ironically by the time a true collapse happens they are out of money (or heart) to pursue their intellectual rigor.

While it is interesting to note homebuilder stocks and the NASDAQ followed a very similar path (which gold thus far seems to also be on during it's 8.5 year run), I would doubt there is much statistical value from this. But on the off chance gold is about to go parabolic and follow the paths of the other two asset classes, this would forecast to a price of 2.5 current levels, in the next 18 months.

Translation? Gold $3000 by Thanksgiving 2011. ;) You can imagine what world events would be required for that to happen...

Follow us

And can you imagine the smile on John Paulson's face... who is now has holdings of gold instruments larger than most countries? [Oct 13, 2009: Largest Gold Reserves by Country]

[Nov 19, 2009: John Paulson Set to Launch Gold Hedge Fund]

[May 16, 2009: John Paulson Continues to Pile Into Gold]

[Mar 17, 2009: John Paulson Joins David Einhorn as Gold Bug with Stake in AngloGold Ashanti (AU)]

--------------------------------

Eye candy courtesy of WSJ ROI blog

  • It's been the amazing, runaway boom of the past decade. If you'd put your money into gold at the lows about 10 years ago, you'd have made a nearly 400% return. That's left pretty much everything else—stocks, China, let alone housing—in the dust.
  • But if gold is a bubble, here's why it may not be over—and, indeed, may it may be about to go vertical.

    Long Powershares DB Gold Double Long in fund; no personal position

This article is contributed by Fund My Mutual Fund and does not represent the views or opinions of International Business Times.
Sponsor Link:
Join the Conversation
IBTimes TV

73 yr Old Becomes Oldest Woman to Climb Mount Everest

Global Markets
Existing Home Sales Jump, World Banks Lowers China Forecast, Euro Prepares for Greek Exit

Recommended for you
  1. Wall Street scores weekly gains, but sags for the dayU.S. stocks ended their first positive week in four with a down day on Friday as investors were reluctant to buy going into a long weekend, with uncertainty still swirling around Europe.
  2. Wall Street slips ahead of long holiday weekendStocks slid into the close on Friday as traders, wary of the risks posed by Europe's debt crisis, closed out positions ahead ...