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By Richard Lough
November 25, 2011 8:49 AM EST
Ethiopia is being sucked back into Somalia to open another front against Islamist rebels battling Kenyan forces but even a military victory is unlikely to end two decades of anarchy unless the country's feuding politicians and clans want peace.
A small Ethiopian contingent rolled across the border on November 19 and 20, although Addis Ababa has publicly denied its troops are there. They have revived bases used during its ill-fated 2006-2009 campaign to rid the anarchic country of hardline Islamist rebels.
Regional leaders were meeting in the Ethiopian capital on Friday to discuss ways of supporting Kenya's campaign. Mogadishu has said it would welcome an Ethiopian force if there was an official mandate.
Kenya has leaned heavily on Ethiopia to send a much larger force to join the assault against the al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab rebels.
But Ethiopian troops are unlikely to stray far this time, aware that their last intervention was a rallying call for rebels, who portrayed Ethiopia as Christian invaders in a Muslim country.
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Kenya too has stressed it will leave Somalia once it has dismantled al Shabaab's network and seized strongholds that provide the insurgents a financial lifeline, potentially leaving a void for former warlords to step into.
Somalia is a hotspot in the global war against militant Islam. But in the two decades since warlords and then Islamist insurgents reduced its government to impotence, a string of foreign forces, including American, have failed to bring order.
"The Ethiopians can be none too happy with the state of affairs," said J. Peter Pham, Africa director with U.S. think-tank the Atlantic Council.
"The Kenyans, having foolishly charged in with apparently little thought as to realistic strategic objectives... are now bogged down and need an additional front opened against al Shabaab to relieve the pressure on themselves," he said.
Kenyan forces crossed into Somalia nearly six weeks ago in an incursion designed to dismantle the militants' network.
While they initially advanced smoothly on rebel strongholds in southern Somalia, the Kenyan campaign has stalled as al Shabaab fighters melt into the population, while heavy rains and muddy terrain swamp its forces.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said this week any measures against the rebels would be taken jointly with other members of the region's IGAD bloc and the African Union.
ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY
Ethiopia is reviled across much of Somalia.
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