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(Reuters) - OPEC began negotiations on Monday for a new production deal aimed at healing the rift caused by a bad-tempered failure to agree an output target when it last met in June.
At stake for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at a Wednesday meeting is a cohesive and credible output policy heading into a year when a sluggish global economy could undermine fuel demand and cut oil prices that are now above $107 a barrel.
"I think they have to agree this time because they need to be credible," said former Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil.
If OPEC finds itself "battling a potential price collapse next year," said Washington consultancy PFC, "establishing the basis for this cohesion will be OPEC's first order of business."
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Without a collective supply target, OPEC members with spare capacity - Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies - remain free to pump at will.
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Signs are that a deal is likely.
A sherpa meeting of OPEC experts on Monday discussed a report from OPEC headquarters that forecasts demand for OPEC crude at 30 million bpd, near current output, in the first half of 2012.
"I think there's a gentleman's agreement. The ongoing production won't be increased or decreased," an Iranian delegate told Reuters after the experts' meeting.
"30 million is the number we're looking at, yes," said a Gulf Arab OPEC delegate.
Leading producer Saudi Arabia has made clear its intention to keep oil prices under control, saying last week it was producing a surprisingly high 10 million barrels daily of crude, much more than estimated by most in the oil industry.
That pleased consumer nations worried about the impact of oil prices on global growth.
"OECD stock levels are at historically low levels, plus we are in very fragile economic recovery situation," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
The Saudi position has worried price hawks in OPEC like Iran, Algeria and Venezuela who want to keep oil above $100.
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