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By Nick Edwards
January 20, 2012 12:35 AM EST
China's factory activity likely fell for a third successive month in January, suggesting Beijing's pro-growth policies will remain in place despite early signs that the downward drift is slowing, a survey of purchasing managers showed on Friday.
The HSBC flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the earliest indicator of China's industrial activity, stood at 48.8 in January, a three-month high and a slight improvement on the 48.7 final reading of the December index.
Turnarounds in sub-indexes measuring new export orders, backlogs of work and stocks of finished goods were all signs of strengthening activity, though the overall reading stayed below the 50 level -- which demarcates expansion from contraction -- where it has languished for most of the last seven months.
New orders overall ticked to a three-month high, but failed by a narrow margin to get back above the 50 level.
Areas of concern for investors linger beside the bright spots though, with the overall output index signaling contraction at a faster rate in January than December -- a trend also reflected in the stocks and quantities of purchases.
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"The most vulnerable firms are the all-important, highly externalized ones in the manufacturing sector -- especially the smaller firms, which the HSBC flash is weighted towards," Jeremy Stevens, China economist with Standard Bank in Beijing said.
"These smaller firms have long tentacles reaching deeply into the broader economy. The data confirms that many have been forced into lock-down mode, favoring cash preservation over revenue generation," he wrote in a note to clients.
Deteriorating demand from China's biggest trading partners in the European Union and the United States helped drag growth in the world's second-biggest economy down to its lowest in 2-1/2 years in the final quarter of 2011.
The new export orders sub-index, however, managed to bounce to 51.1 from a three-month low.
That followed a run of recent official data that showed a surprising uptick in industrial output growth to 12.8 percent in December 2011 from a year ago and a year-on-year 18.1 percent jump in retail sales.
But official data has also shown a fall in fixed asset investment growth and a further slowdown in the rate of property investment that has been a key driver of economic expansion.
Elsewhere in Asia, Japanese manufacturers remained pessimistic about business conditions for the second straight month in January amid Europe's debt crisis and the slowing global outlook, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
But manufacturing sentiment is seen bottoming out over the next three months, according to the poll.
SLOWER GROWTH, POLICY ACTION
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