Mexico Drug War: No End in Sight to Violence

A quarter of Mexican troops -- about 45,000 -- are involved in the campaign, and the United States, in an attempt to stop narcotics from entering the country, provides funding for the battle near its border.

However, despite Calderon's efforts, the number of cartel-related homicides has risen each consecutive year of his presidential term. There were more than 15,000 deaths connected to the drug trade in 2010 and between 12,000 and 13,000 in the first three quarters of 2011. Extrapolating the average death/month figures brings the projected 2011 total to 17,000, which is almost triple the 2009 and 2008 figures.

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"While government operations have broken apart some cartel organizations, the combination of military and law enforcement resources has been unable to dislodge cartel influence from the areas it targets," the report stated.

"As long as the smuggling corridors [into the United States] exist, and provide access to so much money, other organizations will inevitably fight to assume control over them."

In total, more than 50,000 people have been killed in drug-related violence since Calderon began his crackdown five years ago. In 2012, the use of the military against cartels will likely continue. Calderon is in the final year of his term and a new president and the drug cartel issue is already a key topic in the campaign to find his successor.

The Changing Landscape of War

The report significantly found that Los Zetas became the largest cartel in Mexico in terms of territory, moving past the Sinaloa Federation, which has been called the largest trafficking organization in the world. By the end of 2011, Los Zetas had moved into the central Zacatecas and Durango states, which are important for shuttling narcotics north and for growing marijuana and poppies (opium).

There are still smaller cartels operating in key cities -- notably the Independent Cartel of Acapulco, the Cartel Pacifico Sur and The Knights Templar in Michoacán -- but most have formed alliances with larger cartels, essentially splitting the country with Sinaloa in the west and Los Zetas in the east.

"While a great deal has been said about the fluidity of the Mexican cartel landscape, these two groups have solidified themselves as the country's predominant forces," Stratfor noted.

"Of course, the battle lines in Mexico have not been drawn absolutely, and not every entity calling itself a cartel swears allegiance to one side or the other, but a polarization clearly is occurring."

Los Zetas