International Business Times

U.S. Job Market Surges in January, Europe Perks up

By Andy Bruce

February 3, 2012 9:21 AM EST

The U.S. economy created more jobs in January than even the most optimistic forecast, adding to a sense the global economy started the year in better shape than hoped, especially with new signs of life in Europe.

U.S. non-farm payrolls jumped 243,000, far exceeding economists' expectations for a gain of 150,000 and topping out every forecast from more than 70 analysts polled by Reuters. The jobless rate fell to 8.3 percent from 8.5 percent.

The report sent stock index futures and the dollar surging and triggered a sell-off in Treasuries. It followed earlier reports suggesting Europe's economy may have perked up.

"January's (U.S.) payrolls report is unambiguously positive," said Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING Group.

"With the labour market playing such a pivotal role in the Fed's monetary policy strategy, the commitment of the Federal Reserve to keeping rates on hold until at least late 2014 is looking hard to take too seriously."

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And there were plenty of bright spots from Friday's series of purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), which measure changes in the activities of companies all over the world.

Britain's service sector expanded at its fastest pace in 10 months in January, exceeding every expectation, while activity in Indian and Russian services companies grew at the fastest pace in six months.

The euro zone's vast services economy snapped four months of decline by expanding last month, albeit very weakly. The PMIs suggested a recession there, widely expected by economists, will be mild.

"All in all, the improvement in the services PMI index is seen as a sign that the (euro zone) economy is not as depressed as some have feared," said Annalisa Piazza, economist at New Edge Strategy.

Further PMI data for the U.S. non-manufacturing sector, due at 1500 GMT, should support recent steady progress of the world's No.1 economy, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Business and consumer sentiment surveys from the euro zone since the start of the year have shown a definite upturn in optimism, although hard data still point to profound economic weakness in the common currency area.

Retail sales during December, including the busy shopping period after Christmas, fell some 1.6 percent compared with a year earlier, suggesting some of the optimism may be of the frothy kind.

Economists also warn that developments in the euro zone debt crisis are still critical to the bloc's economic outlook.

Greece at least looks likely to avoid a ruinous sovereign debt default by agreeing a debt swap deal and a new bailout with the International Monetary Fund, although market focus is shifting back to Portugal and its long-term solvency.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
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