EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY's pullback from 102.20 was contained at 99.24 last week and recovered. With 99.13 minor support intact, corrective rebound from 97.03 might still continue. Above 100.88 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 102.20. Break will target a test on falling rend line resistance (now at 105.86). Though, break of 99.13 support will indicate that such rebound is finished at 102.20 already and should flip bias back to the downside for retesting 102.20 first.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 123.31 is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low as well as100% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, up trend from 88.96 (00 low) has completed at 169.96 and made a long term top there. Based on the five wave structure of the rise from 88.96 to 169.96, we're favoring that fall from 169.96 is corrective in nature. Hence, we'll look for reversal signal ahead of 88.96 low.