Nevada Caucus 2012: Five Things to Look for Tonight

That Romney will win seems beyond dispute, or as beyond dispute as anything can be in a race that has had more front-runners than Henry XVIII had wives. The real questions are about runners-up and margins: Will Romney reach the coveted 50 percent threshold? Will Paul surpass Gingrich for second place? Will Santorum do anything worth noting?

Here are five things to keep in mind as you follow the caucuses tonight.

Romney Shooting for 50

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With a lead of 20 percent or even greater over Gingrich, Romney doesn't really have to worry about winning the caucuses. It will be his margin of victory that will determine whether he can point to Nevada as the state where he began to dispel the lingering doubts about his electability.

The consensus seems to be that the magic number is 50 percent. That's about what he got in Nevada in 2008, and if he can do it again this time around, with a much more contested field, he will be better equipped to argue that Republicans are coalescing around him.

"Anything under 45, 50 percent would be a disappointment, I think," said Ted Jelen, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "He's not going to get much credit [for winning Nevada] -- all Romney can really achieve is to hold serve, unless it's just an overwhelming blowout, which is not going to happen. He has more to lose than to gain here."

In today's vote, said David Damore, also a political scientist at UNLV, Romney "is battling more against expectations than anything else."

Paul Outperforming Polls

In theory, Nevada's closed caucuses should put Paul at a disadvantage in comparison to the open contests held in Iowa and New Hampshire, because much of his support comes from independent voters and Democrats. But Paul makes up for that disadvantage with superb grassroots organization and, above all, the commitment of his supporters -- two things that are extremely important in caucuses.

"For the caucus, you have to show up day, time and place certain. You have to stay for a couple of hours," said Eric Herzik, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Reno. "The Paul folks are more than willing to make that commitment."

Not only are they willing and eager to give their time to the caucus process, but the Paul campaign knows exactly what it needs to do to turn them out. "What you need in a caucus is organizers, leaders to tell people where to go," Jelen said. "Where do you show up, what's the address, what time do you have to show up? It's not just showing up after work or after breakfast or before dinner. It's 11:30 sharp, and not everybody knows that. You need to make sure that your supporters have their little maps, have their instructions." And Paul's supporters do.

With these factors in mind, Herzik and Damore both predicted that Paul could go as high as the 20 percent range and finish second. They and Jelen all agreed that the race between Gingrich and Paul should be much more competitive than the polls indicate.