USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 76.02 last week but made a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations and the pair might recover back towards 55 days EMA (now at 77.14). Though, note that the strong break of 76.55 support confirmed resumption of whole fall from 79.52. Hence, we'll stay bearish as long as 78.28 resistance holds and expect further decline ahead. below 76.02 will target a test on 75.56 low.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of long term trend reversal in USD/JPY yet even though downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. USD/JPY is still trading below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Not to mention that it's far below the falling 55 months EMA. The long term down trend is expected to resume sooner or later with an eventual break of 75.56 low to 70 psychological level. In any case, we'd at least prefer to see sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 79.40) before considering the case of reversal.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.