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Violent crime rates have been steadily falling across the U.S. over the past three decades, defying the doomsday predictions of politicians, social scientists, police officials and many other observers.
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Despite an ever-rising population; continued drug trafficking and abuse, and recurrent economic recessions, criminal activity has been dropping.
According to Justice Department statistics, on a per capita basis, the murder rate has plunged from a peak of 10.2 (per 100,000 inhabitants) all the way down to 4.8 in 2010. Thus, the incidence of homicides has been cut by more than half.
The frequency of forcible rape peaked in 1992, when 42.8 such acts were reported for every 100,000 inhabitants to 27.5 in 2010. Broadly speaking, the incidence of all violent crime has plunged from 758.1 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1991 to 403.6 in 2010.
The Los Angeles Times reported that if the 1992 murder rate had persisted, 170,000 additional Americans would have been killed since then.
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Sociologists and criminologists have a proposed a number of reasons behind the bewildering drop in wrongdoing – including the easing of the crack cocaine epidemic, tougher police tactics, stiffer prison sentences by judges, a higher number of imprisoned inmates, an aging population, and even abortion, among others.
But the reality is that no one really knows why.
I propose a wholly new reason to explain (or partially explain) the dramatic reduction in crime: obesity.
Perhaps it is only a coincidence, but the drop in violent crime has roughly occurred concurrently with a spike in obesity.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 36 percent of all American adults and 17 percent of children under 19 were obese in 2010.
When one includes people who are simply overweight, the numbers are even more stunning – almost 70 percent of men and women are overweight or obese, while almost one-third (32 percent) are overweight or obese.
These figures, while leveling off, have remained steady for about the past decade.
Moreover, obesity rates are even higher among the poor and racial minorities. Almost 60 percent of black women are overweight or obese, while nearly 45 percent of Hispanic women are. Among black and Hispanic kids and teenagers, between one-fourth and one-fifth are fat. (The corresponding figures for whites is 14 percent).
In New York City, where I live, the bulk of violent crime has traditionally been committed by poor black and Hispanic youth (upon victims of similar demographics).
