FX Market Commentary – 13th February 2012

On Friday afternoon the release of Chinese trade balance data saw an immediate sell off of the Australian dollar.   China's imports and exports slumped pointing towards a larger slowdown that many economists have suggested but data had not backed up the degree of it till now.  Looking back at Governor Stevens RBA statement last weak China slowing down not as greatly as expected played into rates staying on hold.  US trade balance data was also released on Friday but it was more positive with the trade balance widening of the back of greater demand for imports.  The release of a -48.8 billion trade balance versus last month's -47.1 billion helped underline the Australian dollar which closed at 1.0672 USD, after it peaked last week at 1.084 USD.

As most people open their papers this morning the pictures of Athens will worry anyone long risk assets at the moment.   The Greek parliament is meeting to vote on Prime Minister Lucas Papademos's austerity package, and the Euro was traded positively in the final hours of trade on Friday finishing just shy of 1.32 USD.

The weeks ahead sees a little less in the way of interest rates announcements but after the Chinese data release on Friday, Thursday's  Australian employment rate  which is expected to increase to 5.3%.  The Australian dollar has opened higher than Friday's close just sitting below 1.07 before the open of local equity markets.  We do have monthly home loans data our at 11.30 which are expected to increase 1.9% but we don't expect it to be a major influence on trade.