USDA sees corn stocks double next year

USDA's forecast corn area fell short of the 95.475 million planted in 1944, 68 years ago.

USDA forecast the amount of corn for feed at 5.225 billion bushels, up from 4.6 billion this year, corn for ethanol was trimmed to 4.950 billion from 5.0 billion and exports were increased to 1.875 billion bushels from 1.7 billion this year.

The government lowered its average farm corn price to $5.00 per bushel for next year compared with $6.20 this season.

USDA cited a record 14.235 billion bushel corn crop, above the previous record 13.1 billion and pegged the yield per acre at 164.0 bushels, above last year's 147.2 bushels per acre. USDA forecast soybean plantings at 74.0 million and a crop of 3.215 billion bushels, the third largest on record. The Reuters poll pegged soy area at 75.3 million.

The baseline report had little impact on grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Last year, the baseline projections took many grain experts by surprise when active selling tumbled corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade by 16 cents, or 2.3 percent, over two days, and by 50 cents, or 3.5 percent, for soybeans.

The influx of a new breed of deep-pocketed investors over the past few years who consider grains an asset just like company shares or bonds have upped the ante, fueling wild swings in prices with the ebb and flow of their money.

An analysis of USDA's annual baseline projections for corn acreage over the past decade showed the forecasts topping the department's estimates from the Outlook conference just once, while coming in lower six times.

For soybeans, the baseline projections topped the Outlook estimates three times and came in below five times.