The man behind Europe's debt downgrades

By Marc Jones

February 13, 2012 4:14 PM EST

On January 13, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut the credit ratings of nine euro zone countries, stripping France and Austria of their triple-A status and ringing alarm bells in global financial markets about the region's financial health.

The move swung the spotlight onto key figures at the ratings agencies who make those decisions. Their snap upgrades or downgrades of a country's debt influence entire nations' borrowing costs and can even decide whether investors will lend to them at all.

Moritz Kraemer, the lead analyst in S&P's European downgrades, has long toiled in obscurity and has avoided taking a big public profile as he monitors Europe's next move from a Frankfurt office tower.

But his decisions have huge impact. Since 2007, Kraemer and his team of little-known economists at S&P's European sovereign debt team have downgraded euro zone countries 36 times.

That wave of cuts has earned Kraemer a nickname among some policymakers: "Mr Scissorhands," a reference to the U.S. fantasy film "Edward Scissorhands," which told the story of an artificial man who had scissors instead of hands.

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Kraemer declined to be interviewed for this article. S&P said they wanted to underline that their ratings decisions were taken by committee and were not moves made by individuals.

The agency's sensitivity is understandable. Ratings agencies were heavily criticised after the 2008 financial crisis and have been under fire again in Europe because of their decisions.

A 2011 U.S. Senate investigation reported that ratings agencies downgraded risky mortgage bonds in 2007, only months after they deemed the securities to be comparable to Treasury bills. The inquiry also said ratings agencies worried they would lose fees if they gave lower grades for mortgage bonds.

In announcing the downgrade of much of Europe, Kraemer defended the ratings cuts and criticised Europe's leaders for not doing enough to address the region's debt crisis. "The policy initiatives taken by European policymakers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the euro zone," Kraemer said at the time.

Colleagues say that is typical of Kraemer, who speaks English, German, French and Spanish.

"I'm sure like anybody else he doesn't like to face such harsh public criticism, but that is part of the role and I think he is the right person for the job during such difficult times," said Michael Zlotnik, S&P's former head of EMEA bank ratings who worked alongside Kraemer at the firm for a decade up until 2011. "He doesn't let himself be dragged under by the public storm."

STUDIES IN POVERTY, EMERGING ECONOMIES

Kraemer, who grew up in Germany, earned his doctorate at Goettingen University in central Germany. At Goettingen, his world was far removed from the creditworthiness of the euro zone. He studied developing country economics. His studies and papers encompassed subjects including tropical deforestation and how railway projects could reduce poverty in Africa.

"He was very engaged in third-world issues and development economics. That was originally his main interest, how to overcome poverty," said Hermann Sautter, Kraemer's professor both at Goettingen and in Frankfurt where Kraemer did his undergraduate studies.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters UK. All rights reserved.
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