When will Israel Attack Iran?

Then there is a third way, which is probably only of syllogistic worth -- maintaining the status quo. Even this does not look possible as with each passing day Iran's purported march towards the nuclear weaponization gains pace.

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In August 2009, Ex-US envoy to the United Nations, John Bolton, whipped up frenzy by "predicting" that an Israeli attack on Iran was impending and Tel Aviv had only hours left to deal a crippling blow to the nuclear ambitions of its arch enemy.

His reasoning was based on the timing of the loading of nuclear fuel into the Bushehr reactor in Iran by the Russians. He said it was logical for Israel to launch an attack before the reactor became operational, lest it should cause the release of radioactive material.

Tel Aviv did not meet that deadline. A lot of equations have changed hence, including the fact that Iran has gone several paces ahead with its capability to enrich uranium to purity levels far higher than the energy production requirement.

There was frenzied talk in Israel of an imminent attack in November, with Haaretz reporting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were trying to muster more support for such a move within the cabinet. It was reported that among other prominent political figures, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was converted to the pro-attack camp.

Closer to date, the U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Pannetta said in the beginning of the month that an Israeli strike on Iran was highly likely in April. Pannetta's statement was in effect a stamp of approval for the war theories, though the U.S. confirmed its position that aggression will only be resorted to when all other options fail.

The 'other options" are basically the years-old sanctions and the newly agreed EU oil embargo, which comes into effect on July 1. And that date is of momentous importance too; that is, if the attack has not taken place before that.

Iran warned the West in stern language in January when the EU agreed on the oil embargo, saying it would block the Strait of Hormuz if such a move ever took place. The proposed oil embargo, under which EU member countries will stop importing Iranian crude, would cut off an important lifeline for Iranian economy and push the oil exporting country into choking off production for want of buyers.

"If any disruption happens regarding the sale of Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed," the deputy head of Iranian parliament's foreign affairs committee, Mohammad Kossari, said. The U.S. did not take kindly to Iranians' promise of counter aggression, and the saber-rattling heightened.

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