International Business Times

India's Gold Demand Drops Below China Q4

February 16, 2012 9:25 AM EST

Wild price swings caused by a volatile rupee sapped Indian buying interest in gold in the fourth quarter of 2011, with imports well short of expectations and no pick up expected this year, dropping it behind China for the first time.

India's gold imports in the last quarter of 2011, traditionally peak consumption season, fell 44 percent to 157 tonnes, although total imports last year rose 1.1 percent to a record high of 969 tonnes, the World Gold Council said on Thursday.

Indians are usually the biggest buyers of gold in the world and from October to December, the calendar is full of festivals and weddings, creating many opportunities for people to flaunt their finery.

But the country's fourth-quarter imports figure came short of a previous forecast of more than 281 tonnes.

China's gold consumption stood at a higher 190.9 tonnes between October and December, compared to 173 tonnes in India during the same period.

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"The rapid rise and fall in the rupee, and resulting domestic gold price swings had a strong impact on gold buying with both jewellery and investment demand in H2 lower by around 33 percent," the WGC said in a quarterly research report.

Gold prices rallied for the most of last year as safe-haven demand surged on the euro zone crisis and U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, among other factors, to a record in September before correcting sharply in the last quarter of the year.

Prices in India touched record highs too.

The most-active gold contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange hit a record high of 29,516 rupees per 10 grams in mid-November, or about $1,813 an ounce. It traded at 28,162 rupees per 10 grams by 0927 GMT.

Spot gold peaked at $1,920.30 in early September, and was last quoted at $1,717.6 an ounce.

CHINA TO BECOME WORLD'S NO.1 GOLD CONSUMER IN 2012

India's imports are likely to stay flat this year and China may eclipse India as the world's biggest gold consumer on an annual basis as well, the WGC said.

"Gold demand (in India) in 2012 is likely to remain steady. There are many things that influence demand. Right now, I don't see a big change in demand," Ajay Mitra, managing director of India and the Middle East at the World Gold Council, told reporters.

Factors including the fluctuation in the rupee, overseas gold prices and government policy will influence India's gold demand, he added.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
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