Election of Saleh's Successor to Mark New Chapter in Yemen

But civil war remains a very real risk in a country facing an emboldened offshoot of al-Qaida, an economic crisis that has brought it to the brink of famine, a rebellion in the north and a southern secessionist movement that attacked a vehicle carrying ballot boxes on Sunday.

"If the new government fails to fulfill its obligations to reach out and re-integrate the southerners, the Houthis (northerners) and the youth ... then conflict will be inevitable," political analyst Abdulghani al-Iryani said.

Follow us

The power transfer, brokered by the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, has been touted by regional and Western powers as a triumph of diplomacy.

Visiting Yemen, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor John Brennan praised Hadi's efforts against al-Qaida and said on Sunday that Washington hoped the country would be a model of peaceful political transition in the Middle East.

Yet most Yemenis see Hadi as a caretaker rather than a seasoned leader. If he is unable to keep warring interests within the military from getting out of hand, many fear Yemen will be torn apart by those hoping to exploit a power vacuum.

"The GCC deal does nothing more than maintain the status quo," Karim Rafari, a prominent political activist, said. "It (the election) is just a political maneuver that ensures that the needs of those at the top are seen to."

Apart from al-Qaida's interest in using Yemen as a staging ground for attacks, Saudi Arabia suspects Shi'ite power Iran of supporting Houthi rebels in the north. The Shi'ite group has regained some of the momentum it lost when Saudi Arabia sent troops to the porous 1,460 km (910 mile) border in 2009 to suppress the rebellion.

Holding the country together will be a feat, let alone drafting a constitution and holding a referendum to pave the way for a multi-party election in two years' time, as laid out in the Gulf initiative.

CAN HADI RULE?

Saleh, who is in New York for medical treatment for injuries suffered in a bomb attack against him in June, has vowed to return and lead his General People's Congress party, casting doubt on his commitment to give up power for real.

Even if he lets go after ruling since 1978, members of his inner circle retain key positions of influence, not least his son Ahmed Ali, who commands the Republican Guards, and Yehia, his nephew, who leads the Central Security Forces. They are locked in a standoff with tribal leader Sadeq al-Ahmar and dissident General Ali Mohsen.