June Unemployment Rate Falls to 9.5% ... For the Wrong Type of Reason

By Trader Mark

July 2, 2010 12:51 PM EDT

Initial view of employment data is a poor report.

Knee jerk reaction was upward as 83K private jobs were added, offset by some 200K+ census lost - hence a net -125K, which was a bit below consensus but not off much.

Unemployment rate fell to 9.5% which on the surface is improvement but once more it's all about the way America counts its unemployed... if you are not actively looking for 4 weeks you no longer are unemployed in the country. We've stressed labor force participation is at all time lows... and it got worse. 650,000 people "left" the workforce.... dropped out, disappeared, poof, kazam, etc. Hence the labor force participation shrunk even more...

The irony here is if the GOP does not pass extended benefits benefits, the unemployment rate might shrink even further as countless more drop out of the labor force ... which again, by American standards mean they are no longer unemployed.

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The labor work week shrunk 0.1%.... another negative, and the only positive the bulls had last month when they claimed an increase of 0.1% was equivalent to 300K new jobs. Well, that just went away.

Hourly wages look like they are flat.

Birth death model added 147,000 jobs ... i.e. the government is telling us small business formation is BOOMING across America yet again.

U-6 dropped to 16.5% which is the only positive but I think its affected by the same drop off of 650K Americans. I can only assume people are going into some form of underground economy to survive or joining programs (if eligible) like welfare or disability.... or simply desperate.

Summary: your local and national politicians will crow about the "improvement" in the economy due to the unemployment rate dropping to 9.5%. Reality - hundreds of thousands of Americans are disappearing from the official labor force, and have been doing so this entire ~~recession~~ recovery. No one knows where they are... and the % of Americans working versus the total population remains at levels we've not seen before.

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S&P futures jumped strongly in the opening moments based on the 9.5% print until details came out and then went back to flat and now a bit negative. If market drops below S&P 1120 and stays there we'll exit the index long exposure and see how the day unfolds.

This article is contributed by Fund My Mutual Fund and does not represent the views or opinions of International Business Times.