After Japan, China will overtake U.S. in 20 years?

By Amy Wong: Subscribe to Amy's RSS feed

August 6, 2010 9:32 PM EDT

Despite the fact that China has overtaken Japan as the world's No. 2 economy, many Chinese believe China is still a developing one and it may take 20 years to for China to catch up with the US, according to reports from Global Poll Centre released on Friday.

According to the center which conducted two separate surveys in seven cities, 78 percent of the interviewees feel that China is a developing country, not a developed one. Furthermore, half of them believe it will take 20 years to catch up with the US.

The results also show that people believe the income-disparity issue will remain the biggest challenge to social stability in the next 10 years.

The surveys were carried out in Beijing, Shanghai, Guanzhou, Chengdu, Shenyang, Xi'an and Changsha by the Global Poll Centre.

The results reflect a sober and rational judgment of China's status despite the adulation of the foreign media, Global Times reported, citing Zhang Shengjun, vice dean of the Institute of International Relations at Beijing Normal Universityas saying.

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"China may be the second largest economy in terms of GDP, but that makes the fact that China's per capita income is 10 times smaller than Japan and the United States," Kevin Gallagher, professor of International Relations at Boston University, told IBTimes in an interview.

China's Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) in 2009 stood at $4.9 trillion and the per capita GDP was just $3,700, far behind developed countries.

"What's more, China is still home to one hundred million poor people and it is fast becoming one of the most unequal societies in the world," Gallagher added.

Gallagher noted that in 1978 China's Gini coefficient was 0.18 and is now approaching 0.50 and rivaling the most unequal places in the world like Brazil and Mexico.

The Gini coefficient is a measure of the inequality of a distribution, a value of 0 expressing total equality and a value of 1 maximal inequality.

According to the report from the Global Poll Centre, the public believe income disparity and corruption will be the most challenging to social stability in the next 10 years.

However, the public feels China's foreign influence is growing. About 76 percent believe that China now has a say in international issues.

Gallagher notes that China's economic status will give the Chinese "tremendous bargaining power at the WTO and elsewhere".

"China will demand more respect amongst the global business environment and command more 'say' in the various global organizations such as the UN and WTO," said Ted Sun,an international professor and expert based in the U.S..

Moreover, China may gradually change the current situation that America has the ultimate veto power with organizations like the UNand also provides the majority of the funding, Sun said.

"If a decision is not liked by the Americans, they can stop it from happening, even if many other countries are for the decision," Sun told IBTimes in an email interview. " With China's economic powers, they can balance the power of the Americans and perhaps play the world leader in making solid decisions in the future.," he concludes.

China has already used its economic power to leverage access to new technology and know-how, according to Professor Gallagher at Boston University.

"We'll see what is next," he said.

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