A second round of stimulus is waiting in the wings, ready to be deployed if the economy further deteriorates, said PineBridge Investments, an investment adviser with $78 billion in assets under management.
If the Chinese economy does not glide into the “soft landing” engineered by their regulators, PineBridge believes their government will resort to fiscal stimulus near the end of 2010. For the U.S., regulators are gearing up for another round of quantitative easing if the economy worsens, said PineBridge.
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Economic data undoubtedly shows growth in China has slowed as the government has clamped down on real estate speculation and lending, two areas that were previously overheating. Although China's growth is still impressive, some fear that the government came down too hard and China is headed for a “hard landing.”
There are currently no reliable indications that China is preparing for a second stimulus, other than some talk by economists and analysts that it may be needed. However, state-controlled media in China have reported officials denying the need for a second round of stimulus -- the fact that Chinese media and officials feel the need to address this topic at all indicates it may have crossed their minds.
U.S.
For the U.S., the downturn is more serious -- partially precipitated by ripples from the European debt crisis and the expiration of various stimulus measures. And there is also some evidence that U.S. officials are indeed considering quantitative easing.
