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India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary / 07_Sept_2010

September 7, 2010 12:25 PM GMT

Global Markets:

The U.S. Dollar remain range bound as US was shut on account of Labor Day Holiday. The USD remained near post Nonfarm lows though as Asian and European stocks rallied. The Yen kept inside a tight range as the Crosses dragged the USD/JPY higher before the major tested Y84 in the European session. The AUD held close to the 0.9180 resistance all day on solid risk appetite and hopes that the political deadlock was going to solved. The RBA decision although widely expected to remain at 4.5% attention will be on the accompanying statement. Meanwhile, for Euro the market stalled above 1.2900 in Europe buoyed by strong stocks before profit taking inspired a pull back. Some focus on European Banking capital concerns could weigh this week. Elsewhere, Sterling was the weakest currency in the market pushing down below 1.5400 in the European session on weak crosses as EUR/GBP pushed higher.

Technical Outlook:

EURO: Euro tested the strong resistance of 1.2920 (21 Days Weekly EMA) levels yesterday and currently trading at 1.2801. A break and close above 1.2920 levels can push the pair next to 1.3030 - 50 levels where selling can be initiated. Exporters in EuroInr can look for covers near 60 - 60.50 levels for the near term, whereas the importers can hold until 59.20 levels. Medium term bias: Bearish.

GBP: Pound is currently trading at 1.5380 levels and touched high of 1.5479 levels yesterday, the resistance of 1.5490-1.55 levels intact. Immediate support comes near 1.5340 levels. Broader picture remains neutral to bearish signalling that additional weakness is possible near-term. Exporters in pound can look for partial covers around resistance area of 72 - 72.40 levels. Medium term tone: Neutral to bearish.

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JPY: UsdJpy moved higher post the NFP data but held the key resistance of 85.23 levels(21 daily EMA) on friday. We maintain our downside view in the pair seeing the next support near 80 levels. Outlook for Yen: Neutral to Bullish - Target 80.

AUD: Aussie is currently trading at 0.9156 levels and touched high of 0.9181 levels today morning . This resistance of 0.9180 - 0.9200 levels should hold where shorts can be initiated. Support is seen at the psychological levels of 0.90 levels. Overall Bias remains: Neutral.

GOLD: Gold is currently trading at 1248 levels. Immediate resistance comes at $1265 levels (High of 21-June-2010). We maintain our bullish bias in gold targeting $1265 levels. Going long on lower levels is recommended. Medium Term remains- Bullish.

Dollar Index: Dollar index failed to sustain above 83.45 cluster resistance as well as 55 days EMA and dropped sharply. Rebound from 80.08 is likely finished. Break of 81.65 support will confirm this bearish case. More importantly, this will argue that whole fall from 88.70 is possibly not over yet and we'd see a test on 80 psychological level in this case.

Forex Reports contributed by India Forex

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