Quantitative easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve will boost U.S. exports, said Manoj Pradhan and Joachim Fels, economists at Morgan Stanley.
Because of the size of the U.S. economy, the circulation of the U.S. dollar, and its reserve currency status, the Fed's efforts to print money and debase its currency will ripple throughout the world.
Emerging markets countries, which are growing faster economically and whose currencies offer higher yields, will be flooded with dollars and they will eventually buy more U.S. goods as a result, said Pradhan and Fels.
Economies with low inflation and moderate economic growth will probably want to keep their currencies low to boost exports. So as dollars flow into their financial system, their central banks will accumulate them and issue domestic currency. This will boost domestic liquidity, which will lead to economic expansion, higher incomes, and consequently greater demand for goods, including those from the U.S., said Pradhan and Fels.
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Economies with high inflation and strong economic growth will probably allow their currencies to appreciate. This will stem inflation concerns, but the higher exchange rates will make U.S. exports more competitive.
"Either way, the U.S. wins," said Pradhan and Fels.
"Winning" isn't guaranteed and there are risks, however.
One, if emerging markets economies combined foreign exchange reserve accumulation with strict capital controls, they can conceivably avoid both stimulating their economy and appreciating their currency.
Two, these countries can retaliate by enacting trade barriers. This, of course, would be disastrous for the global economy. However, so far, policymakers have not retaliated in such ways, said Pradhan and Fels.
Email Hao Li in New York at hao.li@IBTimes.com.